AGP Executive Report

Trade & Investment: Honduras and the Dominican Republic used CABEI’s 4th Business Forum in Tegucigalpa to push new export/import deals and investment links, with talks spanning rum, real estate, auto parts, jewelry, and tourism infrastructure. Digital Policy: Meta has started testing Community Notes in 16 Spanish-speaking Latin American countries, including Honduras, as it moves away from professional fact-checking—drawing criticism from the International Fact-Checking Network. Immigration & Labor: As El Salvador’s TPS deadline nears, about 200,000 Salvadorans face uncertainty in the U.S.; in Las Vegas, unions warn the loss of protected workers could hit hotels and casinos. Cross-border Enforcement: The Trump administration is hiring contractors to recover about $423 million in unpaid fines from more than 66,000 deported people, including targets in Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala—raising legal and practical questions.

US-Led Security Push: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is kicking off a Latin America tour to meet newly elected leaders in Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, with an agenda centered on “narcoterrorism” cooperation and deeper commercial ties—while Honduras is listed among the countries in the US-backed “Shield of the Americas” coalition. Deportation Costs Hit the Region: Bloomberg reports the US is hiring private contractors to track down deported migrants in Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala whom it says owe about $423 million in unpaid fines, raising legal and practical questions about whether payments can be compelled. El Niño and Food Security: The World Food Programme warns El Niño could push up to 16 million more people into food insecurity across Latin America and the Caribbean, with Honduras already seeing drought-linked crop failures that threaten household nutrition and school feeding. Manufacturing Meets Volatility: A Honduras-based textile group, Grupo Beta, is using an AI product-creation tool to speed up adoption and decision-making as factories face tariff and logistics shocks—showing how tech is becoming a competitiveness lever, not just a cost.

El Niño Food Shock in Honduras: The UN World Food Programme warns El Niño could push up to 16 million more people in Latin America and the Caribbean into food insecurity, with Honduras already seeing failed corn and bean harvests and nearly 80% of territory under drought alert since August—raising pressure on school meals, rural livelihoods, and cash support. US Immigration Crackdown Reaches Honduras: Bloomberg reports DHS is hiring private contractors to track deported migrants it says owe hundreds of millions in unpaid fines, including people in Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala—an effort that could test whether the US can legally compel payments after removal. Rubio’s Latin America Tour: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a three-country swing—Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru—aimed at backing Trump-aligned governments and expanding commercial ties alongside cooperation against “narcoterrorism.” Honduras Manufacturing Turns to AI: A Honduras textile group, Grupo Beta, is cited for rapid AI adoption to improve product creation and decision-making amid tariff and logistics volatility, showing how local firms are using tech to protect margins. Regional Trade/Ports Watch: The Dominican Republic highlights port modernization as a growth engine, linking logistics upgrades to tourism, jobs, and deeper trade with Central America and the Caribbean.

US-Led Diplomacy: Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicked off a Latin America influence tour in Colombia, meeting newly elected President Abelardo de la Espriella in Barranquilla and signaling closer cooperation on “narcoterrorism” and commercial ties after Colombia expanded security operations and joined the Trump-backed “Shield of the Americas.” Human Rights & Land: UN experts urged Honduras to halt evictions of peasant, Indigenous and Afro-descendant communities under Decree 107-2026, warning the law could enable dispossession without proper agrarian review or consultation and undermine the right to food. Climate & Food Security: The UN’s WFP warned El Niño-driven drought could leave 16 million people in Latin America facing food insecurity, noting Honduras has kept most of its territory on alert since August as harvest losses threaten livelihoods. Regional Business Finance: In Panama, Davivienda Group said its integration of Scotiabank operations has created a regional banking platform with nearly $80 billion in assets and a $60+ billion loan portfolio, strengthening Panama’s hub role. Migration Pressure: A US-Guyana framework will provisionally receive a limited, vetted group of deportees via IOM, with Guyana retaining case-by-case authority to accept or reject.

US–Honduras Business & Policy Watch: A UN panel urged Honduras to halt evictions of peasant, Indigenous and Afro-descendant communities under Decree 107-2026, warning it could enable land grabs tied to energy, tourism and agro-industrial projects. Migration & Labor Impact: In the US, ICE escalated enforcement in Memphis after a gambling bust, detaining 120+ people including a Honduran man, while separate reporting highlights how Haitian TPS fallout is threatening staffing in Florida’s elder care sector. Regional Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to visit Colombia, Ecuador and Peru to deepen cooperation with Trump-aligned governments, including commercial ties and anti-narcoterrorism. Climate Risk for Agriculture: The UN warned a “supersized” El Niño could hit Latin America and commodities like corn, cocoa and coffee; Honduras is among countries already seeing drought-linked crop losses. Finance (Panama): Davivienda Group says its Panama integration has built a regional banking hub with nearly $80B in assets.

El Niño Shock for Honduras and the Region: The UN warns a “supersized” El Niño is intensifying and could keep disrupting economies and commodities through February 2027, with Honduras already seeing erratic weather and drought that threaten crops and energy. Land Rights Under Pressure: UN experts urged Honduras to halt evictions of peasant, Indigenous and Afro-descendant communities tied to Decree 107-2026, warning the law could enable land grabs that undermine the right to food. Honduras in the Migration Crossfire: A report highlights how ICE raids and deportation practices are fueling fear among immigrant communities, including cases involving Hondurans. Tourism Signal from Central America: El Salvador reported a 22% jump in international arrivals (Jan–Aug 2026) and $2.88B in tourism revenue, with Honduran tourism up 26%, underscoring regional demand shifts. Drought Hits Trade Routes: Panama began reducing Panama Canal transits due to El Niño-linked drought, cutting daily crossings from 36 to 32 by mid-September—an economic headwind for Central American logistics.

Land Rights Under Fire: UN experts urged Honduras to immediately halt evictions of peasant, Indigenous and Afro-descendant communities tied to Decree 107-2026, warning the law could enable dispossession for agro-industrial, energy and tourism projects without proper agrarian review or free, prior and informed consultation. Energy & Agribusiness Policy: The decree, also framed as protecting the agro-industrial sector, expedites procedures and directs authorities to act against occupations and blockades—raising concerns about the right to food and reversibility of evictions already carried out, including against the Garífuna community of San Juan in Tela. Regional Climate Shock to Trade: Panama began cutting Panama Canal transits due to El Niño-linked drought, lowering daily crossings from 36 to 32 by mid-September—an impact that Honduras and the region are already feeling as drought emergencies spread. Banking Consolidation in the Region: Davivienda Group said its Panama integration of Scotiabank operations leaves it with nearly $80B in assets and a $60B+ loan portfolio, positioning Panama as a regional banking hub.

Honduras Land Rights Under Fire: UN experts say Honduras must halt more than 1,000 eviction orders under Decree 107-2026, warning the law—drafted without community consultation—could displace peasant, Indigenous and Afro-descendant families and is “almost impossible to reverse,” threatening food security and ancestral territorial claims. El Niño Hits the Region’s Trade Routes: Panama began cutting Panama Canal transits from 36 ships per day to 32 by mid-September as drought tied to El Niño lowers lake levels; the canal handles about 5% of global maritime trade and roughly 40% of US container traffic, while Honduras has also declared an emergency. US–Guyana Migration Deal: Guyana agreed to provisionally receive a limited, vetted group of “skilled” and “non-criminal” third-country nationals deported from the US via IOM, with Guyana able to review and reject cases and the US funding transfers and IOM covering arrival and support costs. Immigration Enforcement Pressure in the US: New local reports in San Diego say July saw the highest number of immigration arrests in the region under Trump’s second term, prompting community groups to cancel aid events amid detention fears. FBI Targets Fraud and Violent Crime: FBI Director Kash Patel says the bureau is “crushing violent crime” and highlights major arrests and extraditions, including a case tied to an alleged SNAP scam.

Honduras Land Rights Under Fire: UN experts say Honduras must immediately halt more than 1,000 eviction orders tied to Decree 107-2026, warning the law was drafted without community consultation and could displace peasant, Indigenous and Afro-descendant families, undermining the right to food. El Niño Hits Trade Routes: The Panama Canal started cutting daily transits from 36 to 32 ships as drought lowers reservoir levels, with Honduras and El Salvador also declaring emergencies—an issue that matters for regional logistics and costs. FBI Cross-Border Crackdown: The FBI highlighted major arrests and extraditions, including a fugitive capture tied to an alleged $600,000 SNAP fraud scheme after being located overseas with help from other countries. Honduran Court Developments Abroad: A U.S. federal case alleges a Honduran national used an alias to register and vote in multiple elections in California, feeding renewed debate over voter roll controls. Education & Business Talent Pipeline: Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar celebrated its largest incoming class, including first-ever students from Honduras, with business administration among offered programs.

El Niño Impact on Trade: The Panama Canal has started cutting daily ship transits from 36 to 32 by mid-September after drought lowered water levels in its two supply lakes, with Panama declaring a nationwide emergency; the canal handles about 5% of global maritime trade and roughly 40% of US container traffic. Honduras Food & Land Rights: UN experts say Honduras must halt more than 1,000 eviction orders under Decree 107-2026, warning the law shields agro-industrial land from ancestral and agrarian claims and could displace peasant, Indigenous and Afro-descendant communities, including a Garifuna eviction reported in Tela. Tourism & Local Economy: A travel feature spotlights Guanaja in Honduras’ Bay Islands—marketed as a quieter alternative for beaches, snorkeling and fishing—highlighting access via Roatán and water-taxi travel that supports local services. Regional Business Education: Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar welcomed its largest incoming class, including Honduras’ first-ever first-year students, expanding first-year seats to 140 and offering business administration among other degrees.

Land & Food Security: UN experts say Honduras must immediately halt more than 1,000 eviction orders under Decree 107-2026, warning the agro-industrial land law was drafted without community consultation and is already displacing peasant, Indigenous and Afro-descendant families—threatening the right to food. Climate & Trade: The Panama Canal is cutting daily crossings from 36 to 32 due to El Niño-linked drought and low reservoir levels, a move that matters for global shipping and about 40% of US container traffic; Honduras and El Salvador have also declared El Niño emergencies. Agriculture & Rural Livelihoods: In southern Honduras, drought has wiped out the “primera” maize planting for elderly farmers like Gertrudis Paz, with September rains now seen as the make-or-break window for the next planting. Regional Policy & Governance: ECLAC statistics experts warn that without quality data there is no accountability, as they open a major regional statistical conference in Santiago. Immigration & Business Impact: In Indiana, some local Lawrence businesses report fallout after ICE raids, highlighting how enforcement actions can disrupt commerce even beyond directly targeted sites.

Climate & Food Security: El Niño is expected to strengthen into one of the strongest events on record, with near-100% odds it persists through Feb. 2027—raising risks of drought, floods, and extreme heat that could hit agriculture and energy systems. In Honduras’ dry corridor, drought has already erased the final planting for some small farmers, threatening food, livestock, and next season’s survival. Agribusiness & Prices: Coffee markets may stay supported as El Niño and thin inventories raise downside production risks, with forecasts pointing to firmer prices into 2026–2027. Energy & Politics in Honduras: Rixi Moncada accuses Honduras’ Congress and judiciary of “political persecution” after a wave of dismissals and warns of reforms that could shift control of ENEE toward banking and private generators. Cross-border Finance: Félix Pago, a WhatsApp-based remittance startup serving Latin America (including Honduras), raised $200M to scale transfers and expand into lending and savings. Regional Business/Travel: Iberojet is quietly building a transatlantic network and adding new scheduled routes, including El Salvador service from Sept. 2026.

Drought Watch in Honduras: In southern Honduras, 91-year-old farmer Gertrudis Paz says a failed primera planting has left him with almost no corn, as wells fail and September rains look uncertain—raising risks for food, livestock, and next season’s survival. Coffee Market Signals: Coffee prices are expected to stay firm as El Niño strengthens and supply risks mount, with forecasts pointing to support from thin inventories and weaker outlooks for the 2027-28 crop. Remittances & Fintech: Miami-based Félix Pago raised $200 million to scale WhatsApp-based cross-border transfers to Latin America, including Honduras, and plans to expand into lending and savings. Energy Reform Politics: Honduras’ Congress approved energy reform amid criticism that it could open the door to privatization and shift control of ENEE toward banking and private generators. Political Persecution Claims: Rixi Moncada accused Honduras’ Congress and judiciary of orchestrating “political persecution” after a wave of dismissals and controversial rulings. Regional Business Context: Honduras’ Congress president Tomás Zambrano appears among panelists tied to the Madrid Forum’s right-wing agenda, underscoring how politics and regional business alliances are intersecting.

Honduras Court Clears Juan Orlando Hernández: A Tegucigalpa judge dismissed the fraud and money-laundering case against former President Juan Orlando Hernández, saying he wasn’t responsible for the alleged budget decisions and that there wasn’t enough proof he embezzled funds; the ruling also acquitted other former officials tied to the “Pandora II” probe. Cross-Border Finance Boom: Miami fintech Félix Pago raised US$200 million (US$87m equity led by Andreessen Horowitz plus US$113m credit) to scale WhatsApp-based remittances using USDC, and to expand into lending and savings for Latinos sending money to countries including Honduras. El Niño Risk for the Region: The UN and WMO warn El Niño is “supersized,” with extreme heat, drought, and flooding risks stretching into 2027—raising concerns for food security in Central America’s dry corridor that includes Honduras. Energy Reform Politics in Honduras: Rixi Moncada accused Honduras’ Congress and judiciary of “political persecution” amid dismissals and criticized a mass-dismissal law and ENEE-related counter-reforms tied to private-sector control. U.S. Enforcement Spillover: U.S. reporting highlights private debt collectors and ICE fine/penalty practices affecting immigrants, underscoring how enforcement and finance policies can ripple into Hondurans’ migration and remittance realities.

Honduras Court Clears JOH: A Tegucigalpa judge dismissed the fraud and money laundering case against former President Juan Orlando Hernández in the “Pandora II” matter, saying prosecutors couldn’t trace alleged campaign funds and that Hernández wasn’t responsible for the budget decisions at the time; the ruling also acquitted other former officials, with prosecutors still able to appeal. Political Tensions in Congress: Rixi Moncada accused Honduras’ Congress and judiciary of orchestrating “political persecution” after a wave of dismissals and controversial rulings, and criticized a mass-dismissal law and proposed ENEE changes tied to private actors and banking interests. Fintech Funding With Honduras Links: Remittance and mobile top-up firm Félix Pago raised US$200 million (Series C) to scale transfers across Latin America, including Honduras, using WhatsApp-based payments and planning to expand into lending and savings. Energy Reform Watch: Honduras lawmakers approved an energy reform that critics say could increase privatization risk, keeping the spotlight on how utilities and generation assets may be reshaped. China-Taiwan Trade Fallout: New reporting highlights how Honduras’ 2023 switch from Taiwan to China triggered economic shocks for shrimp exporters, while the government now faces pressure to reconsider ties as scrutiny of Chinese business projects grows.

Energy Reform: Honduras’ Congress approved a reform to restructure state utility ENEE after it reported daily losses of $1.9 million, with critics warning of privatization risk while supporters framed it as an operational fix. Courts & Politics: A Honduran judge dismissed fraud and money-laundering charges against former President Juan Orlando Hernández, saying prosecutors couldn’t confirm misuse of public funds for his 2013 campaign; prosecutors may still appeal. Land Rights: Garifuna groups in Honduras say land seizures and criminalization are escalating, staging an encampment at the Supreme Court demanding release of human rights defenders and compliance with Inter-American rulings on ancestral territories. Agri & Trade: Dole selected seven employee-led projects for its 2025-26 Harvesting Dreams program, including initiatives in Honduras aimed at education, healthcare, and resource protection. Business & Finance: Miami fintech Félix Pago raised $200M in a Series C, highlighting a new U.S. excise tax that favors digital transfers over cash-based remittances. Immigration Impact: ICE’s “Operation Corral Light” in Memphis led to 121 arrests, while a separate case in Colorado shows how visa-related protections can affect detention outcomes for Hondurans in the U.S.