AGP Executive Report

Cross-Border Tourism: El Salvador expects 58,522 Honduran visitors during Morazán Week, up 20% from 2025. The influx could lift business for hotels, restaurants, retailers and transport providers across the border. Fuel Costs: Honduras has set a 30-day freeze on diesel prices, offering temporary relief to businesses and households amid fuel-cost pressures. Agriculture: Drought is devastating Honduran farmers, threatening crops and rural livelihoods as El Niño intensifies dry conditions. Coffee Trade: Swedish roaster Löfbergs launched ROC-certified Honduran coffee, giving the country’s coffee sector a new route to international consumers.

Fuel Costs: Honduras has frozen diesel prices for 30 days, offering temporary relief to transport and other businesses, though the coverage provided no details on the price or fiscal cost. Farm and Food Risks: El Niño-driven drought is damaging crops and threatening rural livelihoods across Central America, including Honduras, where farmers face mounting food-security and income pressures. Coffee Trade: A new report warns that smallholders face steep hurdles meeting EU deforestation rules, from traceability to land records and compliance costs—risks for coffee exporters seeking access to the European market. Export Links: Honduran buyers joined an Illinois agricultural trade tour this week, meeting grain suppliers and visiting logistics sites as organizers seek to build relationships that could support future exports.

Environmental Crime: An Interpol-led operation involving Honduras and eight other countries recorded 233 arrests and identified 60,000 hectares of illegally cleared forest, targeting illegal logging, mining and wildlife trafficking networks. Fuel Costs: Honduras has frozen diesel prices for 30 days, giving transport operators and other businesses temporary relief from price changes. Agriculture: El Niño-driven drought is damaging crops across Central America’s Northern Triangle, threatening Honduran farmers’ harvests and incomes. Honduran grain buyers also joined an Illinois trade tour aimed at building agricultural export relationships. Regional Finance: Inversiones Atlántida is promoting its new BancAtlantic Capital investment bank across the Caribbean, seeking to expand financing for economies underserved by global lenders.

Climate and Agriculture: El Niño-driven drought is damaging crops across Central America, with Honduran farmers among those facing losses. The strain on harvests threatens rural livelihoods and could add pressure to food supply chains. Regional Finance: Honduras-based Grupo Financiero Atlántida is seeking to grow its Caribbean business through BancAtlantic Capital, a newly launched New York-based merchant and investment bank focused on financing underserved emerging markets. Trade: Honduran grain buyers joined an Illinois tour showcasing agricultural suppliers and transport links, part of an effort to build relationships that could support future export sales. Fuel Costs: Honduras has set a 30-day freeze on diesel prices, offering a temporary brake on a key business expense.

Diesel Relief in Honduras: The government imposed a 30-day diesel price freeze via a 44-cent-per-gallon state subsidy to shield consumers from international fuel hikes, while keeping a temporary 70% gasoline subsidy and continuing US$2 per cylinder support for liquefied petroleum gas. Caribbean Finance Push: Grupo Financiero Atlántida is rolling out “Caribbean Currents” to introduce its new New York-based merchant and investment bank, BancAtlantic Capital, with invitation-only events in Suriname (Oct. 5), Guyana (Oct. 6), Trinidad and Tobago (Oct. 7) and Jamaica (Oct. 8). Agribusiness Trade Link: Honduras joined an Illinois Department of Agriculture Latin American grain tour (Oct. 5-8) aimed at strengthening export relationships, with buyers touring the Melvin Price Locks and Dam and meeting local agribusinesses. El Niño Food Risk: A “very strong” El Niño forecast is raising alarm over supply-chain shocks and hunger risks across Latin America and beyond, with UNICEF warning of major child food insecurity. Honduras Coffee Innovation: UF researchers are testing whether coffee can grow in Florida’s Volusia County under shade structures, as growers seek crop diversification amid climate stress.

Diesel Relief: Honduras froze diesel prices for 30 days via a 44-cent-per-gallon state subsidy, aiming to shield households from global fuel hikes while keeping a 70% gasoline subsidy in place. Energy & Cost Pressure: The government said it will absorb the equivalent of the road-heritage contribution so the diesel cost doesn’t fully pass through to consumers, alongside continued support for liquefied petroleum gas. Healthcare Access: Global Medical Brigades’ university chapters are sending volunteers to rural Honduras communities, pairing clinical shadowing with hands-on clinic support to narrow care gaps. Business Finance: BancAtlantic Capital, backed by Grupo Financiero Atlántida, is rolling out a Caribbean outreach tour starting in Trinidad and Tobago, signaling continued regional expansion. Regional Politics Watch: Brazil’s presidential race heads to an Oct. 25 runoff after Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round over Lula, a shift that could reshape U.S.-Israel and broader Latin America policy dynamics.

U.S.-Led Security Push: The Pentagon is reassessing troop deployments and expanding anti-drug cooperation across Central America, with Honduras named among key partners as Washington shifts focus from Europe toward the Western Hemisphere. Maritime Counter-Narcotics: Another U.S. strike on an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean killed four, lifting the reported death toll to at least 235 since the start of “Operation Southern Spear,” while UN experts warn the campaign may violate international law. Honduras Climate Shock: Drought is hitting Honduran farmers hard, with Santa Ana’s agriculture sector facing water shortages and looming food and economic stress. Brazil Runoff Watch: Brazil’s presidential race is headed to an Oct. 25 runoff between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro after neither cleared 50%, a result that could reshape regional politics and U.S. influence. Local Business & Health: HNL Lab Medicine is backing Honduras’ Manos Amigas Clinic with laboratory equipment to expand access to care. Finance Expansion: BancAtlantic Capital, backed by Grupo Financiero Atlántida, is rolling out a Caribbean outreach with events in Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Guyana, and Jamaica.

Honduras Agriculture: A drought has dealt a severe blow to Santa Ana’s farming sector, with the mayor calling for emergency federal measures to secure water and support farmers as food and economic pressures loom next year. Brazil Runoff Watch: Brazil’s presidential race is headed to an Oct. 25 runoff after neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro cleared 50%, setting up a high-stakes contest that could reshape Latin America’s political and economic direction. Regional Security & U.S. Role: Coverage highlights how the U.S. is pushing its agenda across the hemisphere, with Brazil’s election framed as a major test of Washington’s influence versus national sovereignty. Honduras Coffee Exports: Löfbergs launched ROC-certified Honduras coffee, spotlighting regenerative farming and Honduras’ role in higher-value specialty coffee supply chains. Migration Pressure on Honduras: A Honduran migrant was arrested in Mexico amid a crackdown tied to a migrant caravan, underscoring ongoing regional transit risks for Hondurans heading north. Food Security Link: In the U.S., SNAP cuts are driving more families toward food banks, a reminder of how policy shocks can ripple back to migration pressures affecting Honduras.

Brazil Runoff Watch: Brazil’s election headed to an Oct. 25 runoff after neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro cleared 50%, with Bolsonaro edging Lula in the first round—raising stakes for U.S. influence in the region. Honduras Drought Shock: A drought in Santa Ana is battering local agriculture, with the mayor urging emergency federal water and support measures to prevent next year’s food and economic crisis. Coffee Trade & Certification: Löfbergs launched ROC-certified Honduras coffee, pushing regenerative, organic and Fairtrade standards from Honduran Cafico cooperative farms into Nordic hotel supply. El Niño Migration Pressure: Honduras is seeing a growing migrant caravan north, and experts warn El Niño could intensify departures as violence and living costs squeeze households. Fuel Prices & Protests: Honduras saw renewed unrest as fuel prices climbed for an 11th week, adding pressure to household budgets and business costs. Garífuna Land Rights Under Threat: A Garífuna land demarcation effort in Colón was halted after threats tied to drug traffickers, highlighting how security risks derail legal land enforcement. EU Coffee Demand: EU imports of coffee hit €18.7B in 2025; Honduras shipped 136,500 tonnes, reinforcing the country’s role in European supply chains.

Brazil Election Watch: Polls show a knife-edge presidential race as voters head to the polls Sunday, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro; the contest is being framed as a major test for U.S. influence in the region, with tariffs, sanctions and visa moves cited as pressure points. Honduras Migration Pressure: A new Honduran migrant caravan is growing as it moves north, with experts pointing to El Niño-linked hardship and ongoing violence and cost-of-living strain; U.S. warnings aim to deter travel amid record deportations. Coffee & Trade: Löfbergs launched ROC-certified Honduras coffee in Europe, highlighting regenerative standards and Honduran cooperative sourcing. EU Coffee Imports: Eurostat data shows EU coffee spend jumped to €18.7B in 2025, with Brazil the top supplier and Honduras shipping 136,500 tonnes. Garífuna Land Rights: Reporting highlights threats and delays around efforts to demarcate Garífuna land in Honduras, as drug trafficking interests reportedly complicate enforcement.

Cruise Market Watch: Royal Caribbean is leaning into “execution” upgrades at Perfect Day at CocoCay—adding paid experiences like Beach Club and Hideaway Beach—while Carnival’s private-island remodels are seen as less seamless, a reminder that in tourism, small service details can drive big consumer expectations. Coffee Trade & Sustainability: Löfbergs launched ROC-certified Honduras coffee, positioning it as organic, Fairtrade, and regenerative—aimed at Nordic hotel distribution—while FAO marked International Coffee Day highlighting the need for climate-smart production and better farmer opportunities. EU Coffee Imports: Eurostat data shows EU extra-import coffee spend jumped to €18.7B in 2025, with Honduras shipping 136,500 tonnes (5%), reinforcing Honduras’ role in European demand. Migration & Weather Risk: A new Honduran migrant caravan is growing toward the U.S., and experts warn El Niño-linked drought could add pressure to move. Regional Business Context: A survey finds Latin Americans’ favorability toward China rising (including Honduras) as U.S. favorability declines—an attitude shift that can shape trade and investment narratives. Sports/Business Link: CONCACAF Nations League action includes Honduras vs Martinique, with matchday stakes that can affect fan spending and local tourism.

China Sentiment Shift: A new Economist/Latinobarómetro survey says favorability toward China rose in 15 of 17 Latin American countries, including Honduras, while views of the U.S. fell—narrowing the gap that had favored Washington. Coffee Supply Chain: Löfbergs launched ROC-certified Honduras coffee, aiming to boost soil health, biodiversity, and living-wage standards for farmers via the Cafico cooperative. EU Coffee Costs: Eurostat reports EU imports of extra-EU coffee hit 2.9 million tonnes in 2025, with value jumping to €18.7B; Honduras shipped 136,500 tonnes (5%). Migration Pressure on Honduras: Reports say a new El Niño-linked drought risk could intensify Honduras-to-U.S. migration, as caravans grow despite U.S. warnings and deportation pressure. Garífuna Land Fight: A Garífuna land demarcation effort in Colón faces setbacks as threats tied to drug trafficking reportedly forced authorities to abandon parts of the process. Regional Business Context: Uruguay’s air passenger per-capita ranking highlights how airport and logistics integration can lift connectivity—an angle relevant to Honduras’ trade and tourism ambitions. Travel/Leisure Demand: Royal Caribbean announced “The SpongeBob Musical” will debut on its 2027 Hero of the Seas, with Roatán, Honduras included on itineraries.

Narco-State Fallout: A new analysis revisits how U.S. support for former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández coincided with drug trafficking infiltration, spotlighting his 2024 Manhattan conviction and raising questions about Washington’s role in a corrupt ally’s rise. Migration Pressure: With El Niño expected to worsen drought conditions, a fresh Honduran migrant caravan is growing as people flee violence and high living costs, while U.S. warnings and deportation policies aim to deter travel. Land Rights vs. Violence: Garífuna land demarcation efforts on Honduras’ Caribbean coast face threats tied to cocaine corridors, with officials reportedly abandoning parts of a demarcation mission after intimidation. Food Prices & Tariffs: An op-ed argues Honduras-linked consumer pressures reflect broader grocery affordability strain driven by trade disruptions, higher input costs, and industry responses that shift burdens onto farmers and shoppers. Business & Travel: Air Canada announced new nonstop routes for 2026, signaling continued regional travel demand that can indirectly support tourism-linked spending.

Honduras Migration & U.S. Border Politics: A new migrant caravan dubbed “Fe y Esperanza” left San Pedro Sula on Sept. 20 and crossed into Mexico via the Rodolfo Robles bridge, growing as it reached Tapachula—fueling debate over whether U.S. midterm politics could shape immigration policy. Fuel Prices & Cost Pressure: Honduras saw protests as fuel prices climbed for an 11th straight week, keeping household costs and business operating expenses under strain. Brazil Election & Regional Interference: Brazil votes Sunday in a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with reporting highlighting heavy U.S. involvement and concerns over electoral sovereignty—an issue that could ripple into trade and investment sentiment across Latin America. China Demand Signal: A survey finds Latin Americans’ favorability toward China rising while U.S. favorability falls, a shift that matters for Honduras exporters and investors watching regional capital flows. Climate Risk for the Region: UNICEF warns 25.8 million children across Latin America and the Caribbean face very high El Niño-related rainfall risks, raising the odds of disruptions to food, water, and schooling.

Immigration Enforcement: A DHS watchdog report says ICE struggled to locate most “Priority 1” visa overstay targets during 2021–late 2024, taking limited action and leaving potential threats at large. Honduras Migration Pressure: Trump’s DHS warned of a large migrant caravan that crossed into Mexico from Honduras and is moving north, as election-year rhetoric ramps up around border enforcement. Visa Costs: USCIS announced higher immigration fees starting Oct. 16, including increases for asylum, parole, work permits, and TPS-related filings. Regional Trade & Agriculture: Belize’s agriculture leadership pushed for better Caribbean transport links and worker frameworks to move farm goods and labor more reliably across borders. Climate Risk: UNICEF estimates 25.8 million children across Latin America and the Caribbean face very high El Niño-related rainfall risks, threatening food, water, health, and schooling. Honduras Business Angle: The week’s biggest Honduras-linked economic signal remains migration and border policy uncertainty, which can disrupt labor flows and cross-border commerce.

Immigration Costs Rise: USCIS will increase several immigration fees starting Oct. 16, including higher asylum, work-permit, parole, and TPS-related charges, as the U.S. tightens legal immigration. Honduras Fuel Protest: Honduras erupted in protest as fuel prices climbed for an 11th straight week, underscoring pressure on household costs and business operating expenses. Regional Trade & Jobs: El Salvador ranks high in economic complexity and manufacturing exports, while Honduras is cited as lagging in the same index—an angle that matters for investors weighing nearshoring and supply-chain shifts. Latin America’s China Shift: A new Economist/Latinobarómetro survey finds favorability toward China improving across Latin America, including Honduras, while views of the U.S. decline—potentially reshaping trade and financing preferences. El Niño Supply-Chain Risk: Research warns a super-strength El Niño could disrupt Latin American supply chains, commodity output, and infrastructure, with uneven impacts across Central America and northern South America. Security Cooperation: The OAS urged full deployment of Haiti’s Gang Repression Force, with Honduras among signatories—relevant for regional stability and cross-border commerce. Coffee Flows: On International Coffee Day, reporting highlights the U.S. as the top coffee consumer and lists major suppliers from the Americas, including Honduras, tying commodity demand to Honduras’ export outlook.